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LONDON (Reuters) – There’s nothing like a market crash to focus the minds of politicians, and Prime Minister Theresa May could find that only a plunge in British asset prices can persuade a divided parliament to back her Brexit deal. But how much do investors reckon sterling and stocks would have to tank before lawmakers decide that a “no deal” exit from the European Union must be averted?. Expectations that parliament will reject the withdrawal agreement May has negotiated with the EU have prompted investors to start buying protection against a sterling plunge, and implied market volatility measures are up onyx cufflinks and studs uk sale.
So far, however, there is no sign of the kind of financial market carnage that might swing both pro- and anti-Brexit MPs behind May’s deal for fear that Britain could blunder out of the bloc on March 29 with no transition arrangements in place onyx cufflinks and studs uk sale. That suggests investors still see some form of negotiated exit as the most likely outcome. The Bank of England has warned that a “no deal” scenario would be an economic shock akin to the 1970s oil crisis. “In what could concentrate the minds of politicians, you would need to see a significant fall (in asset prices) — more than we saw last week,” said Robin Marshall, a director for fixed income at investment firm Smith & Williamson..
He estimated a swift move of between 5 and 7 percent in sterling and the stock market would prompt a reaction onyx cufflinks and studs uk sale. Parliament is likely to vote on May’s deal in mid-December. If cross-party opposition defeats her plans, the risk becomes real that Brexit will become “no deal” by default. That could spark what former government advisor Rupert Harrison, now a portfolio manager at BlackRock, has dubbed the “TARP” model: the resulting market crash would see lawmakers quickly abandon opposition to May’s deal and approve it at the second attempt with minor changes..
For a graphic on Market muscle and TARP, see – tmsnrt.rs/2R5Djd8. TARP is a reference to the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a U.S. government initiative to bail out banks at the height of the 2008 financial crisis. Rejection of TARP by the House of Representatives on Sept. 29 triggered an almost 10 percent fall on Wall Street onyx cufflinks and studs uk sale. The House backtracked four days later. Other such parallels abound. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, elected in 2015 to reverse EU-imposed austerity, rowed back on campaign promises as tumbling markets endangered Greek banks..
In May, the biggest Italian bond selloff in 25 years forced two bickering political parties to the table to form a coalition government, with politicians scrambling to reaffirm Rome’s commitment to the euro. For a graphic on Market muscle and Italy, see – tmsnrt.rs/2R3YbBn. Closer to home, there was “Black Wednesday”, the day in 1992 when Britain was ejected from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) — a precursor to the euro — after it could no longer defend the pound against speculative attacks onyx cufflinks and studs uk sale. The crisis forced authorities into a brutal cycle of interest rate hikes..