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“Hard” Brexit could cause similar economic disaster. UBS calculates Britain would lose 10 percent of output, faring only slightly better with a “soft” deal, at 6 percent. But it will be sterling that will take centre-stage if the TARP model is to rescue May — her game-plan according to some, although others view it as wishful thinking gold cufflinks designs uk sale. They argue that market swings already seen since the June 2016 referendum have done little to change lawmakers’ views about Brexit and what form it should take..

“My view is sterling has to come under more pressure to become party to the chaos,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier gold cufflinks designs uk sale. Ahmed reckons that in a no-deal Brexit scenario the pound would slide another 10-12 percent. That would leave sterling near $1.13, its lowest in more than 30 years. “In Greece for example, the pain in the market especially in the banking sector helped contribute to the compromise by Alexis Tsipras. I don’t see that happening just yet in the UK because it’s not been shocking enough,” he said..

Observers note recent sterling moves have been limited, despite appearing dramatic. When the EU rejected May’s Chequers proposals for post-Brexit ties on Sept. 21, sterling dropped 1.7 percent. It slid another 2 percent on Nov gold cufflinks designs uk sale. 15 when ministers quit over May’s newly-inked deal. That compares with a 7.8 percent drop against the dollar on June 24, 2016, the day after the Brexit referendum. Growing expectations that parliament will reject May’s deal could themselves undermine the TARP scenario if a first-time failure for the bill is priced into markets..

For a graphic on Recent sterling falls small against Brexit vote aftermath, see – Relatively contained moves so far reflect the belief among investors that a smooth exit or even a second referendum are more likely than a messy no-deal. That’s made them wary of selling sterling outright, fearing a huge rebound in the undervalued currency if an exit deal is reached. They have resorted instead to derivatives rather than spot foreign exchange markets to take positions. There are signs that if things start getting really painful, other asset classes will feel it too gold cufflinks designs uk sale.

Last week, when it appeared that ministers were mobilising to unseat May, the FTSE’s inverse correlation with sterling vanished — a rare occurrence of the currency and British stocks falling in tandem. It also offered a glimpse of the broader economic chaos. Property shares fell sharply, raising fears the housing market, the store of most Britons’ wealth, would take a hit gold cufflinks designs uk sale. Bank shares tumbled too, rekindling memories of Northern Rock’s collapse in 2007. For a graphic on Correlations FTSE sterling Nov 22, see –