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Banks have started to complain increasingly about the Fed’s stress tests, saying the scenarios have become unrealistically severe and are proving an unnecessary drag on their capital. Morgan Stanley (MS.N) chief executive James Gorman said in October that it had been pushing the Fed to reconsider its approach to the tests. Quarles said the Fed was considering giving banks more insight into its stress testing model and scenarios button cover cufflinks uk sale. The Fed had resisted giving too much information on that front in the past, concerned that banks could find ways to pass the test without actually reducing risk. But Quarles argued close examination of banks by Fed supervisors could guard against that..
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Two of the world’s biggest economies probably shrank last quarter, further proof that global growth is now past its peak and the risk of a downturn is rising. Germany and Japan are both expected to report negative growth figures in the coming days and even if a slew of one-off events are factored out, the underlying trend is weak and the outlook is fraught with risk, not least from a global trade war. For now, few economists predict a global downturn as the U.S. economy is motoring ahead, and most even see a rebound, perhaps in 2020. But the risks are skewed toward a more negative outcome as the global business cycle is entering a mature phase, already having left its growth peak behind in 2017 button cover cufflinks uk sale.
“It appears the global economy is hitting another major soft patch,” UBS said in a research report. “The deterioration in global ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data is the most severe since the euro zone crisis.” button cover cufflinks uk sale. “We view the softness as transitory and we project consumption and investment to re-accelerate in 2020,” it added. “There is no precedent for a recession having started with accelerating investment growth, as is currently the case in Japan and the euro zone.”..
Advanced economies are suffering from capacity constraints, the global trade war is already undermining confidence and rising global interest rates, driven by tighter U.S. monetary policy, are weighing on financial markets. As if that was not enough, recent corporate earnings were on the weak side of expectations, China’s housing market continues to slow, the risk of a hard Brexit looms and Italy is locked in a battle with the EU over its budget. “As U.S. growth is strong and inflation is trending higher, Fed policy is getting tighter,” ABN Amro chief economist Han de Jong said. “Unfortunately, the rest of the world economy is not half as strong as the U.S.” button cover cufflinks uk sale.
“Given the U.S.’s leading role in the world economy and, more crucially, the importance of U.S. interest rates for global financial markets that creates a big problem,” he added. GRAPHIC: Contributions to changes in global GDP growth – tmsnrt.rs/2QrVhGp. The euro zone’s biggest economy is expected to report on Wednesday a 0.1 percent quarterly drop in GDP, its first negative reading in well over three years. Economists attribute the hiccup to the auto industry’s difficulty in adjusting to new emissions testing regulations, which help up production for months. They say that growth will resume once the bottleneck is cleared, which is expected late this year button cover cufflinks uk sale.