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Economists in the latest poll unanimously said the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.25-2.50 percent in December. Median forecasts show three more increases next year, taking the federal funds rate to 3.00-3.25 percent by end-2019. But the third rate rise is a close call, with just over half, 54 of 102 economists forecasting that outcome. Traders of U.S. short-term interest-rate futures expect only two hikes in 2019. The range of forecasts around how much the Fed will raise rates next year was wide best place to buy cufflinks uk sale. While one contributor expected no change to rates at all in 2019 after a December rise, another predicted a 50 basis point hike at the June meeting..
Part of the reason for the lack of conviction for more rate rises stems from still-tame inflation pressure best place to buy cufflinks uk sale. Wage inflation has picked up recently, but overall, economists have not made any major upgrades to their inflation forecasts. Similarly, there is not a lot of conviction over exactly when the next economic slump will arrive. Twelve respondents in the latest poll said there was a greater than 50 percent chance of a recession in the next two years. But only one, Fathom Consulting, has actually put down a point forecast for GDP to contract in the full year 2020..
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PORT MORESBY (Reuters) – The C in APEC stands for Cooperation. But when the two biggest members are fighting a trade war and using the forum to attack each other’s policies, it was always going to be hard work delivering on that. The weekend’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Port Moresby was one of open disagreement, led by disputes between the United States and China over trade, security and which would be the better investment partner for the region best place to buy cufflinks uk sale. As APEC approaches its 30th anniversary, the failure to agree on a communique for the first time calls into question its relevance in a crowded summit calendar and as the Trump administration makes clear its aversion to multilateralism..